Anti-whaling trio: Heroes, criminals or terrorists?

Shaky footage from a night vision camera shown on the breakfast news this morning showed three self-described environmental activists clambering aboard a Japanese government ship off the Western Australian coastline. As a former clearance diver I admired the success of the covert operation, but from an environmental law perspective it set me thinking about the role of environmental activism and environmental regulation. Under what circumstances is environmental activism of this nature justified and is there guidance as to how it should be applied?

Firstly the known and facts and assumed motives of the action are this. The three activists in question were ferried from the “Steve Irwin”, the flagship of the anti-whaling organisation “Sea Shepard”, in the early hours of Sunday morning to the Japanese ship for the (surmised) purposes of; a) delaying the Japanese ship, which had been trailing the Steve Irwin and thereby allowing the Steve Irwin to slip away and continue its anti-whaling actions unimpeded, and b) as an act of civil disobedience to protest against “scientific whaling” in the Southern Ocean that would hopefully force the Australian government to take action to prevent the whaling.

The term ‘civil disobedience’ was coined by Henry Thoreau in a series of lectures delivered in 1849. Thoreau, who with his classic novel “Walden” can be considered a founding member of the conservation movement, recognised the term as an oxymoron providing a contradiction between being an obedient subject of a civil society while at the same time demonstrating disobedience to the same State institutions.

A purely procedural view of democracy (as put forward by Raz in “The morality of freedom”, 1987) is that if a process is genuinely democratic then it has authority and it follows that compliance is required regardless of the content of the democratic decision . The opposing viewpoint is that democratic decisions should be evaluated based on the quality of the outcomes, it is fromt his viewpoint that civil disobedience arises. Thoreau made the point that legal obligations (what the law requires) and moral obligations (what moral principles require) are conceptually different. Martin Luther King famously wrote in his letter from Birmingham City Jail that “… there are two types of laws; there are just laws and there are unjust laws. I would agree with Saint Augustine that ‘An unjust law is no law at all’ “. The proposition is that all laws have some moral weight but that weight may be over-ridden by stronger moral considerations.

An obligation to obey the law benefits society by requiring a fair reciprocal sharing of burdens. If activists expect companies to obey the law then it is only fair for the activists themselves to obey the law. Tim Soutphommasane recently discussed the moral obligation to obey the law in an opinion piece published in the “Australian”  in which he concludes “… when the presumption of obeying the law is removed things may go horribly awry … and it is only a short descent, in a manner of speaking, into the state of nature”. How then can we judge whether civil disobedience is justifiable? I suggest that Thoreau (in his essay “Civil Disobedience’) provides the best guidance by grading the response to three levels of injustice:

If the injustice is part of the necessary friction of the machine of government, let it go, let it go; perchance it will wear smooth — certainly the machine will wear out. If the injustice has a spring, or a pulley, or a rope, or a crank, exclusively for itself, then perhaps you may consider whether the remedy will not be worse than the evil; but if it is of such a nature that it requires you to be the agent of injustice to another, then, I say, break the law. Let your life be a counter friction to stop the machine”.

Clearly from the above we can infer that for different gradations of offence there are different gradations of civil disobedience; but what are the defining features common to all and when does civil disobedience become revolution or terrorism? Firstly civil disobedience must be non-violent, the goal of civil disobedience is not an attempt to challenge the existence of the State (the machine in the Thoreau’s example) rather it is to challenge a particular law or action of the State.

Secondly civil disobedience is not an open invitation to anarchy. Even though environmental impact may be occurring the protestor has the responsibility to uphold the fundamental integrity of civil order. Put simply if you do the crime you must be prepared to do the time, not as a purchase price for the crime but as a demonstration of willingness to act in other regards with the laws of the State.

Thirdly the action must be motivated by a widely held belief in the moral weight of the case rather than self-interest. Environmental organisations are frequently prone to using extreme rhetoric to describe environmental impacts, painting a dire picture of disaster, species extinction and habitat degradation (this is not to say that these calamities are not occurring, but to make the claim that the taking of a hundred or so minke whales from the Southern Ocean is likely to lead to a threat of extinction is plainly a gross exaggeration). It is easy to imagine that those immersed in such extreme rhetoric could veer from a moral to an ideological motivation. Information reported in the West Australian newspaper’s website suggests that the trio are long-term activists. Therefore to guard against misjudgement that may arise from lack of perspective a prudent person would seek the counsel of a reasonable third party informed of the facts prior to undertaking a course of civil disobedience. It is not apparent that any such prudent counsel was sought.

Now to the three activists: heroes, criminals or terrorists? The action in question was non-violent (as opposed to some other Sea Shepherd anti-whaling actions), this means we can immediately rule out terrorism, which is defined in Australian Law (Criminal Code s.100.1) as an act of criminal violence intended to coerce the government for an ideological purpose. As discussed above civil disobedience is often by its very nature, a criminal act, therefore the allegation of criminality is close companion to civil disobedience. The three activists will most likely be facing criminal charges in Japan and it is for a court to determine the substance of any allegations of criminality. The surmised intention of the act included raising awareness and coercion of the Federal government to change policy and actively intervene to prevent scientific whaling in the Southern Ocean. There is widespread public support for this position within Australia, indeed since the Federal Labor government went to the 2007 election promising to end whaling in the Southern Ocean the action has additional moral weight precisely because it aims to make the government to do what they promised to do. Does this make them heroes? It probably does within their circle of co-extremists, but I would venture to say they are not heroes, merely rebels looking for a cause.

 

Marine Seismic Surveys and Turtles: a short review of environmental risk and management

I was recently asked aout the potential environmental risk to marine turtles and sea snakes from seismic surveys. I have to admit to not knowing much about sea snakes (if any readers kinow of work in this area please drop me a comment), but I have spent a considerable amount of time looking into the environmental risk posed to turtles from marine seismic surveys. The following is a brief review of the environmental risk posed to sea turtles from marine seismic surveys, and potential management actions to mitigate the risk.

Hatchling making its' way to the Indian Ocean

Hearing Ability: The sea turtle’s auditory canal consists of cutaneous plates underlain by fatty material at the side of the head which serves the same function as the tympanic membrane in the human ear. From previous research it is evident that sea turtles can detect sound, and that their hearing is confined to lower frequencies, mainly below 1000 Hz (Bartol, Musick & Lenhardt 1999). Studies using auditory brainstem responses of juvenile green and Ridley’s turtles and subadult green turtles showed that juvenile turtles have a 100 to 800 Hz bandwidth, with best sensitivity between 600 and 700 Hz, while adults have a bandwidth of 100 to 500 Hz, with the greatest sensitivity between 200 and 400 Hz (Bartol 2006; Bartol & Ketten 2006).

Physical Damage: Little is known about the source levels and associated frequencies that will cause physical injury to turtles. Studies by Keevin and Hempen (1997) on the effects of explosions on turtles recommend that an empirically based safety range developed by Young (1991) be used for guidance. Using Young’s safety range formula, and converting back to sound pressure levels, a value of 240 dB re 1μPa @1 m is obtained for adult turtles.

There are no known studies data addressing threshold shift in turtles. Possibly the best source of information comes from Eckert et al. (1998) who, as part of their study on leatherback turtles reviewed the literature and, drawing on physiological similarities to terrestrial species, derived the predicted level at which temporary threshold shift may occur as being in the order of 185 dB re 1 μPa for seismic survey shots.

Behavioural Response: Sea turtles have been recorded as demonstrating a startle response to sudden noises (Lenhardt et al. 1983). However, few studies have investigated threshold level necessary for behavioural effects. Early work by Wilcox and O’Hara (1994) and Moein et al (1995) looked at the use of noise as acoustic deterrents. McCauley 1994 describes how O’Hara and Wilcox (1990) positioned a seismic airgun at the end of a canal to create a sound barrier to loggerhead turtles. They found that airguns with a source level of approximately 220 dB re 1µPa at 1m (measured in the 25 to 1000 Hz range) were effective as a deterrent for a distance of about 30 m. Moein et al (1995) used airguns to investigate means to repel loggerhead turtles from approaching hopper dredges. A net enclosure was created to contain the turtles and airguns positioned at either end of the net. Three source levels were applied; 175, 177 and 179 dB re 1µPa at 1m (measured in the 100 to 1000 Hz range). Avoidance was observed after the first exposure.

McCauley et al (2000) conducted controlled exposure experiments on a loggerhead turtle and a green turtle to monitor behavioural response to approach by an airgun. They found two types of response:

1. Above a received airgun level of approximately 155 dB re 1 μPa2-s the turtles began to noticeably increase their swimming speed.

2. Above a received airgun level of approximately 164 dB re 1 μPa2-s the turtles began to show more erratic swimming pattern, possibly indicative of them being in a distressed state.

Eckart et al (2004) used GPS and Time Depth Recorder (TDRs) to track movement and behaviour of two leatherback turtles exposed to seismic survey noise. They found no change in behaviour or movement from previous turtles that were not exposed to seismic survey noise. However the authors caution that the sample size (two turtles) meant that quantitative analysis was not possible.

Weir (2007) carried out observations from on-board a seismic survey vessel during a 10 month 3D survey offshore from West Africa. She concluded that “..There was indication that turtles occurred closer to the source during guns-off than full-array, with double the sighting rate during guns-off in all distance bands within 1000 m of the array. However, there was no significant difference in the median distance of turtle sightings from the airguns during full-array (mean= 779 m, SD=464, N=57) or guns-off (mean= 743 m, SD=449, N=112) (Mann-Whitney U = 3035, N= 169, P = 0.6). While this result apparently indicates a lack of movement away from active airguns, it is possible that turtles only detect airguns at close range or are not sufficiently mobile to move away from approaching airgun arrays.”

Although the received noise levels were not stated by (Weir 2007) it can be deduced from the description of the airgun array that the received noise level at 1000 m would be in the order of 160 dB re 1 μPa2-s. The reduction in number of turtles observed within 1000 m during operation of a full airgun array (Weir 2007) is therefore reasonably consistent with the observations of McCauley et al (2000) which indicated a behavioural response threshold of approximately 155 to 166 dB re 1 μPa2-s.

Concerns regarding potential for seismic surveys to deter turtles from approaching nesting beaches have been raised, but little data is available to assess the likelihood of this occurring. In the case of pulsed low frequency sound effects on turtle nesting behaviour, nest numbers monitored on beaches near the Port of Hay Point (Queensland) before, during and after a pile-driving program lasting several months in 1996-97 were compared. Results showed no significant trend in nest numbers, indicating that the female turtles had not been particularly sensitive to this pulsed source (Dames & Moore 2000), but nest numbers were too few to provide a conclusive result.

Management Measures: The potential for physical damage is very low and would only occur if the turtle was in very close proximity (within a few metres) of the airgun array during discharge. Threshold shift may occur if the turtle is continuously exposed over several hours to levels in excess of approximately 185 dB re 1 μPa. However is considered unlikely since the animal would need to swim parallel to the vessel within a range of less than about 200 m for several hours. No additional management measures for prevention of physical damage to turtles are considered necessary.

The threshold for behavioural effects is uncertain, but based on the limited studies carried out may be expected to occur at received noise intensities of approximately 155 dB re 1 μPa2-s. This equates to a distance of about 1 to 1.5 km from an airgun array of the size normally used in Australian waters. The Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA, 2007) has previously required a separation of distance of 3 km between seismic surveys and the turtle nesting location of Sandy Island at Scott Reef.

References

Bartol, S.M. and Ketten D. 2006. Tuna and Turtle Hearing. in Swimmer Y. and Brill R. (eds) Sea Turtle and Pelagic Fish Sensory Biology: Developing Techniques to Reduce Sea Turtle Bycatch in Longline Fisheries, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-PIFSC-7

Bartol, S.M., Musick, J.A. and Lenhardt, M.L. 1999. Auditory evoked potentials of the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta). Copeia 3: 836–840.

Eckert S.A., Bowles, A. and Berg , E. 1998. The effect of seismic airgun surveys on leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) during the nesting season. Technical report to BHP (Petroleum) Trinidad Ltd

Environmental Protection Authority 2007, Maxima 3D Marine Seismic Survey – Scott Reef , Report and Recommendations of the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority, Bulletin 1255. 30 April 2007

Keevin, T.M. and Hempen, G.L. 1997. The environmental effects of underwater explosions with methods to mitigate impacts. US Army Corps of Engineers, St. Louis District, St. Louis.

Lenhardt, M.L., Bellmund, S., Byles, R.A., Harkins, S.W. and Musick, J.A. 1983. Marine Turtle reception of bone conducted sound. Journal of Auditory Research 23: 119–1125.

McCauley, R.D., Fewtrell, J., Duncan, A.J., Jenner, C., Jenner, M-N., Penrose, J.D., Prince, R.I.T., Adhitya, A., Murdoch, J. and McCabe, K. 2000. Marine Seismic Surveys – A Study of Environmental Implications. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Journal 2000: 692–708.

Moein, S.E., Music, J.A., Keinath J.A., Barnard D.E., Lenhardt M and George R. 1994. Evaluation of seismic sources for repelling sea trutles from hopper dredges. In Sea Turtle Research Program, Summary Report. Final Report. Prepared for US Army Engineer Division, South Atlantic, Atlanta, GA, and US Naval Submarine Base, Kings Bay, GA. Technical Report CERC-95 Original not seen, cited in Moein-Bartol S.E. 2008. Review of auditory function of sea turtles. Bioacoustics 2008: 57-59. Viewed online March 2011 at http://www.seaturtle.org/PDF/BartolSM_2008_Bioacoustics.pdf

Young, G.A. 1991. Concise methods for predicting the effects of underwater explosions on marine life. NAVSWC No. 91-22. Naval Surface Warfare Centre, Silverspring, Maryland, USA.

Weir, C. 2007. Observations of Marine Turtles in Relation to Seismic Airgun Sound off Angola. Marine Turtle Newsletter 116:17-20. Viewed online March 2011 at http://www.seaturtle.org/mtn/archives/mtn116/mtn116p17.shtml

 

A way to combine the precautionary principle and risk assessment for the evaluation of project alternatives

Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) is, in its simplest form, meeting the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future (World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), ‘Our Common Future’, also commonly known as ‘The Brundtland Report’). It requires that actions to protect the environment take account of social and economic issues, and those social and economic initiatives, in their turn, take account of the other two components.

Within Australia ESD is referred to in over 30 separate pieces of legislation and has been widely adopted as a standard by which activities should be judged. However in assessing project activities, which may (for example) include weighing up the pros and cons of project alternatives or the development of management systems, it is also necessary to conduct a risk assessment determine the most responsible way forward that balances project objectives with the need to reduce risks to as low as reasonably practicable. In this post I look at the connection between ESD and risk assessment and put forward …

Firstly let me define ESD: and I will use the definition given in the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC Act, s.3A) wherein ESD is defined by its principles as being:

  •  decision making processes should effectively integrate both long term and short term economic, environmental, social and equitable considerations;
  • if there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation [the Precautionary Principle];
  • the principle of inter generational equity—that the present generation should ensure that the health, diversity and productivity of the environment is maintained or enhanced for the benefit of future generations;
  • the conservation of biological diversity and ecological integrity should be a fundamental consideration in decision making;
  • improved valuation, pricing and incentive mechanisms should be promoted.

Of these five principles the precautionary principle is most relevant to risk assessment and the principle I wish to focus on here. The precautionary principle is directed towards the prevention of serious or irreversible environmental harm in situations of scientific uncertainty. Its premise is that where uncertainty or ignorance of exists concerning the nature or scope of the environmental harm decision makers should be cautious (Stein J Leatch v. Director General of National Parks and Wildlife Service, (1993) 81 LGERA 270 at 282).’

Back in the early 1990’s when ‘sustainability’ was first being introduced into the Australian lexicon the Federal government undertook an Australian-wide consultation process to, among other things, develop an approach for applying sustainability in environmental risk management. I was at the time (and still am) in favour of the practical approach suggested Young (Young., (1993), ‘Combining intergenerational equity, the precautionary principle, and the maintenance of natural capital’, paper to the Precautionary Principle Conference, University of NSW) for applying the precautionary principle in risk management, viz:

  1.  When the cost of degradation may be serious or appears irreversible and/or there is little prior experience or scientific confidence about the outcome – follow the strict precautionary principle.
  2. When the cost of degradation may be serious but reversible – maintain a large safety margin and require the use of best available technology.
  3. As confidence with the activity increases, allow a transition to arrangements that only require the use of best available technology when this does not entail excessive cost.
  4. When the threat of environmental damage or irreversible loss is neither irreversible nor perceived to be serious use conventional cost benefit analysis.

Now I turn to risk management. Risk is defined in AS /NZS 4360 as the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. Risk is normally ranked in terms of consequence and likelihood. The table below is a typical environmental risk matrix that I have drawn from recent EIS documents published on the internet. It shows overall environmental risk assessment matrix (also referred to as an event potential matrix) that compares the likelihood and consequences of key environmental aspects arising from the survey and assigns a level of risk. We can readily combine the practical approach suggested by Young with the outcomes of the risk assessment.

For risks identified as “Intolerable” (using the example risk matrix) the first of Young’s points would apply and the precautionary principle would be strictly applied.

For risks identified as “Moderate” a gradation between points 2 and three would apply.

For risks identified as “Negligible” point 4 would be applied.

Explicitly including the precautionary principle into the risk assessment process provides greater direction and focus on the best ESD outcomes because it draws the assessment back to the first principles of ESD.

 

Environmental Assessment of Project Alternatives – how much should be included in an EIA?

Last week my local paper included an invitation from the Council to comment on a proposed road extension, so having an interest in these matters I took a look at the EIA document and was immediately struck by the absence of any consideration of alternatives. If you look at the figure showing the road alignment on the DSEWPaC website (sorry I can’t reproduce it here because of copyright restrictions) it is apparent that that there are at least two alternatives with potential reduction in environmental impact exist but have not been described.

Guidelines issued for environmental impact assessment under most States and Federal environmental legislation include the requirement for an analysis of alternatives. The most common response by proponents to the guidelines is to only put forward a limited selection of alternatives for assessment, if any at all, that reflect narrow project objectives. Furthermore the description of the alternatives that have been put forward is often subjective and written with the intention of discounting all alternatives other than the chosen one. This reponse makes it almost impossible for either the regulator or public to conduct a rigorous analysis of alternatives. However it does not necessarily follow that the proponent has not prudently considered all feasible alternatives.

As with any business activity there is a wide variety of techniques to select from when dealing with alternatives in project development. It is important to remember that the activity of conducting a review of alternatives and the activity of reporting on alternatives in an EIA document are two separate undertakings. It is informative to visualise these two undertakings as axes of a grid (as shown below). The horizontal axis is a representation of how much effort is directed towards conducting an environmental assessment of alternative project options (such as location or manufacturing method). The vertical axis is a representation of the amount of detail of this environmental assessment of alternatives provided within the EIA documentation.

Effort v Reporting GridIn an ideal world we would see EIA documents in the upper right corner where the proponent has undertaken a comprehensive review of alternatives and provided detailed quantitative information on the alternatives within the document. Such a situation would satisfy the spirit and intent of the guidelines. I am unaware of any studies that examined EIA documents from the different jurisdictions to gauge how what proportion of the documents would meet these criteria. I suspect it would be a small portion. In my time I have been involved in several projects that score in the bottom right hand corner of the grid, having conducted large-scale review of alternatives but chosen to give little or no information on the alternatives considered in the EIA document. I am also aware of projects where there has been no environmental assessment of alternatives during project development yet the EIA document presents a review of alternatives written to discount all alternatives (that were never seriously considered anyway).

In the coming days I want to delve further into the issue of alternatives in the EIA process, in particular how to find the optimum balance between environmental assessment of alternatives undertaken by the proponent and the description of alternatives presented in EIA documentation.

 

Musings on the ethics of artificial reef construction

Yesterday I was listening to discussion on the radio about a planned artificial reef near Geographe Bay in the south west of Western Australia. Information on the artificial reef plan can be found at the Fisheries department web site [http://www.fish.wa.gov.au/docs/media/index.php?0000&mr=846]. The commentators were arguing about the costs and benefits of the proposed structure and what struck me most was that there appeared to be no system to evaluate the acceptability, or otherwise, of the costs and benefits of artificial reef other than weight of public opinion.

In this post I would like to look at the question of acceptability, or otherwise, of artificial reef construction from an ethics perspective. A warning to readers: my thoughts on the issue are not fully formed.

To start with: an artificial reef is a human-made underwater structure, typically built to promote marine life in areas with a generally featureless bottom. Artificial reefs have been used around the world to create fish habitat, regenerate damaged ecosystems and to enhance angler catch. The question I ask is: is it ethical to artificially alter the natural marine environment in this way?

Arguably we have been manipulating the marine environment for centuries, for example by fishing activities that reduce total abundance of target and ‘by-product’ species, by actions that change the physical nature of the ocean, whether the seabed (eg dredging and trawling) or water quality (increased runoff and waste disposal). Although we can foresee the occurrence of such significant changes, they are an unintended side effect. and this íntent’ is the key difference between what we have been doing for centuries and artificial reef construction.

The distinction between intended effects and foreseen but unintended effects is a common sense approach, and has found its way into definitions of common law: the principle of Mens rea: actus non facit reum nisi mens sit rea, which means “the act does not make a person guilty unless the mind is also guilty”.

The known and intended consequences of artificial reef construction are localised increased in biodiversity and localised increase in fishing activities. The unintentional risks most commonly associated with artificial reef construction are:

  • the risks of disrupting complex (and poorly understood) ecological systems
  • the risk of merely aggregating fish (as opposed to increasing overall abundance) for easier extraction
  • the risk of promoting increased fishing activity leading to increased pressure on the marine environment.

It may be possible to reduce the risks of known and unintended risks through governance arrangements such as bag limits and seasonal restrictions. However, in some cases the only effective way to reduce the risk of artificial reefs may be to not construct them. Therefore we arrive at a familiar situation (that was discussed on the radio) of having to trade-off benefits of promoting good applications of intervention to improve biodiversity against the risks of enabling harmful outcomes. It is my opinion is that construction of artificial reefs can be regarded as treating the symptoms (low fish abundance) rather than the causes of environmental decline (over fishing and other environmental stresses) and therefore it is relevant to involve a consideration of the ‘moral hazard’ alongside traditional method of cost: benefit type impact assessment.

In economics, the term ‘moral hazard’ is used to refer to the reduced incentive to take care caused by insurance; a car driver with insurance is less likely to drive carefully than one without. In relation to artificial reefs, the fear is that fishers, policymakers or society at large will have weaker incentives to protect the marine environment if they know that artificial reef methods can and likely will be used to offset these pressures, thus leading to an overall increase in fishing activities.

I do not see why a weaker incentive to reduce fishing pressure would be a bad thing, provided that any increase in pressure is indeed offset through artificial reef production. In the case of insurance, moral hazard is often regarded as socially suboptimal because offsetting the costs of accidents through insurance is typically more costly than taking care to avoid such accidents. Proponents of artificial reefs contend that the construction costs (and presumably the costs of governance) are less than the costs of tackling the cause of decreasing catches. If this is right, and if the cost proposed for the Geographe Bay reef of $2.2 million is accurate I have no reason to doubt it, then the moral hazard objection may have force only if artificial reef construction is ‘intrinsically wrong’,  and therefore wrong even if ones contribution will be offset by artificial reef construction.

It is sometimes argued that anthropogenic intervention (i.e. artificial reef construction) is intrinsically bad, even if it does not increase the chances of harmful consequences beyond that which would exist in the absence of human intervention, because of the very fact that it is man-made and therefore unnatural. This is a moral distinction that I hope to write about in the future, for now I see no moral justification to treat anthropogenic disturbance differently from natural disturbance. It therefore follows that artificial reef construction cannot be ‘intrinsically wrong’.

 

Closing in on the tipping point for solar power

The last couple of blogs have been on policy mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Solar power is often touted as a fundamental part of the solution to reducing emissions and there has been a lot of angst about the profitability of solar power companies. One concern is that the subsidies provided by Australian governments for households to purchase photovoltaic panels ends up going overseas; leaving us with low tech installation jobs and, as the governments clawback the subsidies and feed in tariffs through increased electricity supply costs, inflated electricity bills.

I stumbled across an excellent blog by Ramez Naam  that examined the cost of solar power. He writes:

Over the last 30 years, researchers have watched as the price of capturing solar energy has dropped exponentially. There’s now frequent talk of a “Moore’s law” in solar energy. In computing, Moore’s law dictates that the number of components that can be placed on a chip doubles every 18 months. More practically speaking, the amount of computing power you can buy for a dollar has roughly doubled every 18 months, for decades. That’s the reason that the phone in your pocket has thousands of times as much memory and ten times as much processing power as a famed Cray 1 supercomputer, while weighing ounces compared to the Cray’s 10,000 lb bulk, fitting in your pocket rather than a large room, and costing tens or hundreds of dollars rather than tens of millions.

If similar dynamics worked in solar power technology, then we would eventually have the solar equivalent of an iPhone – incredibly cheap, mass distributed energy technology that was many times more effective than the giant and centralized technologies it was born from.

Mr Naam presents graphs showing an exponential decline in the cost of solar power, that can be extrapolated (which is always a risky business) to show that the cost of solar power will reach parity with grid-supplied electricity prices around 2020.

The ABC in their PM programme last week reported that PV costs had reached parity with grid costs but is this really the case?

Here in Australia grid supplied electricity prices are about $0.18 per kilowatt. According to Choice magazine  a 1.5 kW system will produce 2500kW of electricity per year i.e. that is $450 worth of grid supplied electricity at today’s prices. The price of a 1.5kW system is about $8000 before subsidies, the value of subsidies varies (and is likely to change over time) can be estimated to average about $5000 making the household purchase price for 1.5kW system about $2000.

If we assume that the system will last for 10 years then:

for a subsidised system, cost of solar electricity, averaged over this time, works out to be $2000/(2500kW x 10) = $0.08/kW

for a non- subsidised system, cost of solar electricity, averaged over this time, works out to be $8000/(2500kW x 10) = $0.32/kW

The conclusion: the cost of solar electricity is not at yet parity with the cost of grid supplied electricity unless you ignore the ‘hidden costs’ of subsidies. However the rapid rate of improvement in efficiency in both of solar panel performance and production suggests that parity is not that far away.

 

Climate Change and the Ethical Position of Australian Political Parties

Last Friday the lead article in the Financial Review referred to tensions between the Gillard government and the Greens fuelled by the government’s energy blue print (to be released later this year), which will back the dominance of LNG and coal seam gas (CSG). In essence the government sees development of natural gas LNG and CSG as part of an overall strategy to reduce carbon emissions of coal burning by favouring less carbon intensive energy source. The Greens have routinely opposed new LNG and CSG projects on the basis of a two pronged argument that the direct impacts of the development on the surrounding environment are unacceptable and any LNG or CSG is inconsistent with their stated policy of zero net emissions by 2020.

I have worked in both these subject areas; coal seam gas and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and would like to breakout from the details of the arguments to consider the policy position of the two political parties from an ethics perspective. I use reflective equilibrium, and Rawls conception of justice as the basis of the comparison.

The basic idea of reflective equilibrium (RE), was originally put forward by Rawls in his “The Independence of Moral Theory” (a concise introduction to Rawls can be found at the IVR Encyclopaedia of Jurisprudence, Legal Theory and Philosophy of Law). The main argument of Rawls is that we should bring together a broad variety of moral and non-moral beliefs and, through a process of critical scrutiny and mutual adjustment, combines these into one coherent ethics system. RE is a method which attempts to produce coherence in an ordered triple of sets of beliefs held by a particular person, namely

(a) a set of considered moral judgments,

(b) a set of moral principles. Rawls uses three principles; the order determines the priorities of the principles if they conflict in practice:

  1. Every individual has an equal right to basic liberties
  2. Fair equality of opportunity and
  3. The difference principle (i.e. inequalities should only be permitted if they work to the advantaged of the worst off)

(c) a set of relevant (scientific and philosophical) background theories.

Using RE, the policy maker would begin the process of developing an ethical position by collecting moral judgments, such as “pollution should be avoided”, that are intuitively plausible. They then should consider alternative sets of moral principles, such as “development of resources is necessary for supply of basic liberties’ (for example homes and jobs) that have varying degree of fit with the moral judgments. Finally, they should seek support for those moral judgments and moral principles from background theories, such as “a 20% reduction in global emissions is necessary to stabilise global concentrations of greenhouse gases” that are, in their view, acceptable. We can imagine the policy maker(s) working back and forth, making adjustments to considered moral judgments, moral principles and background theories until finally, they arrive at an equilibrium point that consists of the ordered triple (a), (b) and (c).

If we assume (perhaps generously) that both political parties have used a structured process to arrive at their policy position then disagreement about the final policy leads to an inevitable question “what were the ethical considerations used”; and then by what metric is the choice made?

The ALP have no public statement on the ethical considerations taken (that could be easily found at any rate), however we can deduce the process from their National Platform 2009  which states, inter alia, Labor will help provide the knowledge and resources needed to make the transition to a more sustainable society and a more resilient environment. We will support jobs in the low pollution industries of the future and use regulation effectively and efficiently. As the people of the world demand action to protect the environment, becoming more environmentally sustainable will become an economic necessity and a job-creating opportunity for Australia. It is an opportunity we must not miss [emphasis added].

The Greens have a public policy document on Climate Change and Energy, but on a first reading it appears to have conflicts in stated principles and, if we use the priority ordering put forward by Rawls, their opposition to LNG and CSG do not make sense. Therefore neither do the consequential tensions with the ALP Energy Blueprint.

 

To tax or not to tax; that is the question

Yesterday the Senate passed the 18 Clean Energy Bills for control of greenhouse gas emissions, more commonly known as the carbon tax laws. The Gillard government after initially promising not to introduce a carbon tax was corralled down the road to taxation by minority members of the governing coalition. Is taxation the ‘best’ method for controlling greenhouse gas emissions?

The range and the combination, of instruments available that can be used to reduce and control greenhouse gas emission is only limited by the ingenuity of those charged with developing the policies. However, as has been amply demonstrated in the real world, boundaries are established that effectively limit the choice of instruments. These boundaries may be the result of political principles such as equity and social welfare, or they may be the result of design principles.

Historically the choice of instruments available for the control of environmental threat have been described using variants of a pendulum analogy that assigns one extreme of the arc to command and control instruments, indicative of socialist ideology, with the pendulum swinging through various gradations to the other extreme of economic instruments, indicative of free market capitalism. Using this analogy the point of the arc from which instruments are chosen is dictated largely by the prevailing political principles.

With the passage of the Gillard government’s carbon pricing legislation it is clear that the government is focusing a great deal of effort in taxes and charges. At the same time the opposition has has vowed to repeal the legislation if they are elected and replace the taxes with direct expenditure. I would like to put forward my thoughts on the comparative merits of the two approaches.

Firstly, taxes and charges are a form of financial mechanism. Financial mechanisms are generally considered to represent a more economically efficient means of achieving policy objectives because of the greater flexibility in responding to the task of GHG emissions reductions. The arguments to support this position often focus on the inefficiencies of command and control regulations in pareto efficient market places, however it needs to be recognised that such ideal markets are very rare. A further point to be noted is that financial mechanisms are a comparatively recent inclusion in environmental policy and there is only limited evidence of their actual outcomes. Consequently outcomes are predicted from economic models which in themselves have uncertainties.

Taxes and charges can be levied on either resource use or on emissions. It is generally held that the closer to the source of the pollution the more effective the tax will be in effecting behaviour of the polluter (this was first raised by Pigou in 1920, and has largely stood the test of time as an economic principle and is widely quoted in most textbooks of environmental economics). Taxes are intended to encourage the emitters to reduce the level of emissions by forcing the internalisation of the environmental costs of the emissions. The main strength of taxes as a policy instrument is that this encouragement continues to exist even below a set standard of emissions, i.e. it encourages continual improvement. However the effectiveness of the tax is dependent on the level at which it is set and how responsive the market is to changes in cost. If the tax is set too low then there is little incentive to reduce emissions, and the result is merely that the consumer pays a bit more for the same emission pattern. Consequently several iterations may be necessary to determine the right level of taxes.

Secondly, direct action. Government expenditure can occur as direct investments, grants and subsidies, bounties, fees and commissions and favourable administration. The strengths of government expenditure are that it is a strategy with low direct costs to the industry and public. It allows activities that because of their high threshold costs would not otherwise be available to SME’s or the public, to occur. This is especially relevant with research and development actions. It is also relevant to education programs wherein the expenditure can be used to improve the efficiency of the market by improving knowledge and awareness, which are key requirements for market efficiency.

It has also been noted that one of the strengths of direct government expenditure, such as subsidies, is its ability to act as a catalyst or ‘circuit breaker’ for change. A government contribution can tip the balance in favour of an action that may otherwise be uneconomical or politically unacceptable. There are many examples from buses in Hong Kong to wind generators in Sacramento where, once established with the assistance of government expenditure, economies of scale allow low emission products to compete favourably with emission intensive products.

Opportunities exist for reducing emissions from the transport and stationary power sectors by introducing subsidies or favourable administrative conditions to upgrade equipment machinery and vehicles. However this has two main threats. The first is that government would have to draw from limited available resources to fund the actions. The second threat is to equity in that it provides a reward, in the way of financial assistance, to those with dirtier or older facilities while ignoring those who have made investments in cleaner technologies.

The agriculture sector appears to offer the best potential for results from direct expenditure. In this sector there are many diffuse sources of emissions representing nearly a quarter of the Australian total. An expenditure of research and development into agricultural practises has the potential to achieve significant reductions if coupled with an awareness program.

 

A solution to monitoring of small populations

It is common for a company to be required to monitor certain species that may affected by their operations or for governments to introduce management measures for protection of rare or endangered species. You would be hard pressed to find anyone who seriously objects to this; it is a reasonable requirement for protection of the environment to monitor whether an activity that may be adversely affecting a protected species and to introduce measures for their protection.

For rare or endangered species, the monitoring program should be designed so that changes in abundance can be reliably detected. Companies and government often commit a large amount of money and resources to managing rare and endangered species and it is critical to know if these measures are being successful and the population is growing. It is also critical to know if the measures are unsuccessful and the population is continuing to decline. Also, because of their rarity, these changes, either positive or negative, must be detected in a relatively short period of time so that responsive management measures can be applied if necessary for protection of the species.

I have previously written about the problem faced by small populations; ‘…small populations are much more likely to go extinct that large ones’ . Unfortunately it only takes a cursory look at monitoring programs put forward by companies and government to realise that very little thought is given to the getting the monitoring right. For example a review by Taylor et al (2007) published in the journal Marine Mammal Science found that 72% of whale monitoring programs, 78% of dolphin/porpoise monitoring and 55% of polar bear monitoring programs conducted by the US government did not have the power to detect a 50% decline in abundance over a 15 year period.

Monitoring trends in abundance of very rare or endangered populations is particularly difficult because the monitoring method cannot be any more precise than the variance in population size. There is an unfortunate tendency when it comes to the monitoring of ‘charismatic fauna’ populations to focus more on the ‘greenwash’ and photo opportunities than on management. It doesn’t have to be this way; with some thoughtful planning it is possible to obtain hard data that can provide basis for responsive environmental management.

There are several population viability models available that can be used to estimate the risk, measured as probability, of a species going extinct over a given time frame (examples that I have used are Vortex and RAMAS). So if you are able to define the accepted level of risk, for example 50% over 15 years, it is possible to carry out an analysis of the population viability to determine the critical population number. The goal of the monitoring program then becomes to, at the minimum, allow detection of population trends that may lead to the critical population number being reached. Iterations of different survey design options, coupled with statistical power analysis, can then be used to develop the optimum monitoring program. It is not rocket science, nor necessarily more expensive than the business as usual case, so let’s do it.

 

A warm welcome for the 7th billion person on planet earth

Ten days ago the UN released the World Population Prospects 2010 Revision. According to projections presented in the report sometime today, the world population will pass the 7 billion person milestone. By 2024 the number of people living is predicted to reach 8 billion and by 2042 9 billion.

Much of this population growth will come from ‘high-fertility’ developing countries, 39 of which are African countries, nine Asian, six lie in Oceania and four in Latin America – while some European and East Asian countries are predicted to actually see population declines.

This ’7th billion person’ milestone inevitably leads to questions about the earth’s ability to sustain continued increases in the human population. These 7 billion will, at the very least, require food, water and shelter; all of which are commodities in short supply. Estimates from another arm of the UN, the Food and Agriculture Organisation indicate that 925 million people are undernourished. 925 million people is ~13% of today’s  population. If the situation is such that we are unable to adequately feed 13% of today’s population will the projected growth lead to some sort of Malthusian crisis?